Petrol & Diesel engines could exist till 2040
The development of the final generation of combustion engines with better fuel efficiency and reduced emissions is expected to begin around 2025 and could go into production after 2030. Combustion engine technology is likely to be phased out after 2040. Degenhart expects all vehicles to transition to non-fossil fuel power by 2050.
The report also states that according to Degenhart, fuel cell technology is expected to improve in the next 20 years, so much so that the fuel cell powered vehicles could cost as much as electric vehicles (EVs) with lithium-ion batteries by 2040. Heavier vehicles are expected to adopt fuel cell technology due its low complexity in terms of recycling and managing leftover compared to lithium-ion. Bringing down the cost of battery recycling will be a challenge for the EV industry.
Degenhart believes that it is too early for driverless cars and that the industry might not see substantial growth for another 10 years. However, driverless taxis are likely to be the first to adopt autonomous technologies. Software content in passenger vehicles is also expected to increase in the future.